As you may have (hopefully) noticed, Extrema Risk blog has been left unattended for a while. And as you may or may not know, one and a half years ago I assumed the role of the Head of Research at RiXtrema, the role that took up all of my time and then some. This role is a fulfillment of my dream of creating risk models that are actually useful in real life, as opposed to those that view financial markets as a continuous and orderly system (yes, traditional risk models still assume that).
The intense period of research and development at RiXtrema is over, our risk models are released and I have some time to dedicate to discussions of risk as part of my role at RiXtrema. So, I am (drumroll), reopening the discussion of extreme risk issues that we so abruptly left nearly 2 years ago now. The last two years, unfortunately, saw the world financial system move ever closer to realizing one of our predictions from early April 2010:
"...what specifically can risk managers do to be better prepared for the decade of Black Swans? It is our opinion that the focus of risk is now in the sovereign area and multiple partial defaults by inflation are likely worldwide. The uncertainty surrounding these events is very high, but, as we argued time and again, risk management is not about estimating specific sequence of events or their timing, but rather about identifying instability potential and dangerous trends and being prepared with contingency plans."
I want to thank all of the subscribers and welcome you back. This blog will be accessible on rixtrema.com, as well through this blogspot. Stay tuned!